Author Topic: The day after tomorrow  (Read 16239 times)

Spekulatius

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2020, 04:41:42 PM »
^Frankly, I don't even know what tomorrow will bring so forget about the day after tomorrow.
Also, from an advice you gave me in September 2018, the aim is to move from understanding to observation, as far as unknowables are concerned.

So, only 7) is discussed here. I'm more optimistic than Jurgis and I think that change will occur from the inside and/or will be imposed from the outside and that may impact many private entities involved in health care. And even if the virus is significant, it's the evolving status of the (economic) host that I worry about. Something along those lines just came out from somebody who is looking for an opportunity:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/23/why-americans-are-dying-from-despair

Yes, I am looking at this thread as a means to develop a framework. I am not keen on predicting the future, but I do want to have a framework in place, in order to understand what might happen. It is easier to make sense of events as they unfold, if you have a mental model (or several of them ideally) and then test them against the new developments and data coming in.

Simple example - Andrew Youngís UBI. This was fringe idea proposed by a fringe candidate and seems outlandish and quite frankly it is socialist, but look at where we are know? This idea has gone from fringe to mainstream and Trump may sent out checks very soon. Thatís a huge paradigm shift.

I asked in the Coronavorus Thread if a health insurer could go bankrupt. Most seem to think no, which probably is right. But what happens if we get a pandemic and it makes a large insurer like UNH insolvent? Quite frankly, their capital cushion isnít all that impressive and if there is a huge surge in claims, I could see that happen. What would happen then? Nationalization? Bailout? In what Form? And what would happen to the insured? Medicare for all? ItĎs just a possible scenarios and purely speculative, but I guess we will see in the next 12 month things that we never thought to be possible.

At least thatís my thinking. I also like the term New Deal 2.0 because I think that what I think we will be getting. I have no idea what it will look like though.

Itís an interesting time to be alive and hopefully stay that way.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.


Cigarbutt

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2020, 05:12:42 PM »
...
Itís an interesting time to be alive and hopefully stay that way.
...I guess we ain't seen nothing yet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9S93bE06H0
It's the story of a guy who got a transmissible gift because he didn't think that flattening the curve mattered that much in the heat of the moment.
The best is yet to come and we'll make it, somehow.
Looking forward to your framework(s).

Castanza

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2020, 05:37:14 PM »
^Frankly, I don't even know what tomorrow will bring so forget about the day after tomorrow.
Also, from an advice you gave me in September 2018, the aim is to move from understanding to observation, as far as unknowables are concerned.

So, only 7) is discussed here. I'm more optimistic than Jurgis and I think that change will occur from the inside and/or will be imposed from the outside and that may impact many private entities involved in health care. And even if the virus is significant, it's the evolving status of the (economic) host that I worry about. Something along those lines just came out from somebody who is looking for an opportunity:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/23/why-americans-are-dying-from-despair

Yes, I am looking at this thread as a means to develop a framework. I am not keen on predicting the future, but I do want to have a framework in place, in order to understand what might happen. It is easier to make sense of events as they unfold, if you have a mental model (or several of them ideally) and then test them against the new developments and data coming in.

Simple example - Andrew Youngís UBI. This was fringe idea proposed by a fringe candidate and seems outlandish and quite frankly it is socialist, but look at where we are know? This idea has gone from fringe to mainstream and Trump may sent out checks very soon. Thatís a huge paradigm shift.

I asked in the Coronavorus Thread if a health insurer could go bankrupt. Most seem to think no, which probably is right. But what happens if we get a pandemic and it makes a large insurer like UNH insolvent? Quite frankly, their capital cushion isnít all that impressive and if there is a huge surge in claims, I could see that happen. What would happen then? Nationalization? Bailout? In what Form? And what would happen to the insured? Medicare for all? ItĎs just a possible scenarios and purely speculative, but I guess we will see in the next 12 month things that we never thought to be possible.

At least thatís my thinking. I also like the term New Deal 2.0 because I think that what I think we will be getting. I have no idea what it will look like though.

Itís an interesting time to be alive and hopefully stay that way.

My opinion of this bailout is changing very quickly. Seems like there is no hope of it being a loan and therefore no personal responsibility attached. I plan on mailing mine back if this is nothing but a handout.

RadMan24

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2020, 06:28:30 PM »
The focus is always on the vaccine which is so far away, but I think there's positive outcomes in anti viral or other treatments in reducing inflammation in severe cases that's causing most of the deaths. If a treatment is approved here in the next week or two that greatly reduces deaths, the quarantine we're all in should reduce cases in a month or so that business can start to rebound, and the load on the health care system won't be too bad. This is all unknown, but at today's prices for quality companies with solid balance sheets in beaten down sectors, it's about as good as it gets.

Also, there's no way the vaccine takes longer than 12 months. Even Regeneron is prepping doses just in case its effective along side clinical trials.There are 19 other developments as well, but a Vaccine could hit the market as soon as Summer if stars align.

And, to be frank, it needs to happen or people won't trust the industry any more nor believe the efforts in R&D are worth the sky high drug prices, high health care costs, etc. and this industry will be hit hard going forward, imo in such a case..


bergman104

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2020, 09:16:32 PM »
I'm sure there are other health professionals on this, but I'm a surgical resident at a large academic center in the midwest. The reports we are hearing from people across the world are pretty startling. In the US were are in the early early innings of this. I very much hope I am wrong and the economy bounces back in 4 weeks, but I'd be pretty shocked. This is going to get bad folks.

My reasoning is simple. The vaccines and drugs are not going to help simply because there won't be enough time to test them. The anti-inflammatory drugs like chloroquine have only shown to be beneficial in a petri dish, not in large groups of people. No physician I know would actually prescribe chloroquine to their patient unless it was a hail mary. By then it will likely be too late. We simply have no way to fight this other than physically distancing ourselves. The problem with that economically is it drags out the process. My best would be late June or July.

We are 1 week in. I'm waiting 5-6 weeks and hoping like hell I'm wrong and miss the rebound.


ERICOPOLY

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2020, 09:47:16 PM »
The anti-inflammatory drugs like chloroquine have only shown to be beneficial in a petri dish, not in large groups of people. No physician I know would actually prescribe chloroquine to their patient unless it was a hail mary.

Montefiore Medical Center in New York has already started seeing the surge of Covid-19 patients that public health experts have been warning about. The hospital is participating in the remdesivir trial and is giving Covid-19 patients chloroquine. ďAll of our patients get put on chloroquine, as well as on antiretrovirals. Weíre using Kaletra. Different places are using different antiretrovirals,Ē says Liise-anne Pirofski, chief of infectious diseases at Albert Einstein College of Medicine and Montefiore. ďEverybody gets that, unless they have some contraindication.Ē

https://www.wired.com/story/an-old-malaria-drug-may-fight-covid-19-and-silicon-valleys-into-it/

Packer16

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2020, 05:53:00 AM »
IMO the key is an effective treatment not a vaccine.  Treatment will prevent deaths.  There a tension between closing stuff down (which has a huge economic impact on everyone) and public health.  I think if this goes the way of China which IMO should be the mid case (as we are learning from others & should have a better treatment available within weeks) is 2 months (January to March).  Maybe folks are in panic mode to such an extent when someone uses China as an example, they cannot even count the months correctly.  My concern is an over ambitious politician that will keep the close business order on too long.  We still have essential services operating so most of our economy is running fine.

I think this crisis has shown how fragile some portions of our economy is & how levered certain portions of our system.  We are seeing margin calls which are causing contagion in other unrelated sectors (especially real estate and banks).  The unknown here is contagion or fear of contagion reflected in some security prices.

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« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 06:46:15 AM by Packer16 »

Uccmal

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2020, 06:15:08 AM »
I'm sure there are other health professionals on this, but I'm a surgical resident at a large academic center in the midwest. The reports we are hearing from people across the world are pretty startling. In the US were are in the early early innings of this. I very much hope I am wrong and the economy bounces back in 4 weeks, but I'd be pretty shocked. This is going to get bad folks.

My reasoning is simple. The vaccines and drugs are not going to help simply because there won't be enough time to test them. The anti-inflammatory drugs like chloroquine have only shown to be beneficial in a petri dish, not in large groups of people. No physician I know would actually prescribe chloroquine to their patient unless it was a hail mary. By then it will likely be too late. We simply have no way to fight this other than physically distancing ourselves. The problem with that economically is it drags out the process. My best would be late June or July.

We are 1 week in. I'm waiting 5-6 weeks and hoping like hell I'm wrong and miss the rebound.

I would agree with your synopsis, and I am not a surgical resident :-). 

There are far more questions than answers.  The West, particularly the US is going to get hit way worse than China.  China has high level leadership. 

Its many times more complex than working out a chess game 20 moves downstream for a human being. 
GARP tending toward value

rb

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #18 on: March 21, 2020, 06:22:19 AM »
1) What is the Economy going to look like when the epidemic is over?
2) How long is it going to take until the economy turns
3) Which industries may take irreversible damage, which may benefit?
4) Economic changes? Are tax rates going up or down? For whom?
5) Political changes?
6) Bailouts, what is likely to happen, who is going to pay for it?
7) Will there be lasting changes to the health care system in the US?

I hope we can do some crowdsourcing here and get some new ideas and variant opinions.
For the economic side the answer really depends on what was the real shape of the economy before covid hit. If the economy was in decent shape like the headline numbers would suggest then the economy is gonna snap back. If the economy was more sluggish the the recovery is going to be slower.  This can very well be the case because other indicators were softer than the headline numbers would suggest. Inflation was weak in 2019, you had a rate cut, and the 10 year yield was coming down way before every finance guy started looking up the word "epidemiology".

I'm actually quite optimistic about this despite being in the economy was more sluggish bucket.

This basically started with a supply shock (china) but then got hit with a massive demand shock. The way to think about it is that it's equivalent to the Fed doing a massive rate hike, sucker punching demand, and causing a recession. This is basically every recession pre 2000. In those cases as soon as the Fed took its foot of the break the economy came back because the demand was there. Furthermore, this time around there will be substantially less feedback loops normally happen in a recession. Because the banks won't foreclose on you, you'll be able to delay payments, fiscal help, etc.

As for time frame I think we're looking at about 3 months. China is a good example. As soon as the locked down you see them getting this thing under control in about a month. Right now pretty much everyone is pulling a China, not with the military and police but because people have scared themselves senseless. In America because they're pussies and have twitter. In Europe because of Italy and whoever wasn't scared before looked at Italy and is good and scared now. So basically you're looking at 1 month to get it under control then 2 months to clear out the cases.

The other side of this is that they have to solve it in 3 months otherwise we're screwed. I don't think that we can keep at this level more than 3 months before things start to fall apart. I think the longer it goes the more talk you're gonna hear about how we need to get back to normal and the old folks need to take one for the team this time around. So 3 months, assuming the economy wasn't in the crapper going in, with decent monetary and fiscal stimulus behind it. I think the economy recover well.

I don't think there are tax hikes on anyone for a while. While would you tighten fiscally when you need to stimulate. Plus it's an election year.

Regarding industries permanently affected. I don't know that they'll be one. People are pretty good at forgetting bad things and are quite hedonistic. So I think that they go back to their pleasures. There may be a while until someone books a cruise though.

Politically I think changes have already occurred. The Republican party has been completely transformed from what it was. I'm referring to the base as well as the politicians. We knew for a while now that they don't care about deficits. But what we've seen with this crisis is that they're perfectly ok with outright spending as well. So going forward i think that there will be more of a fiscal response to shocks than in the past. This is a good thing, but we'll see.  Republicans have been pretty good at changing their economic policies depending on who's in office.

I don't think there will be changes to the health care system. Americans are really good at keeping it permanently screwed up.

Castanza

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #19 on: March 21, 2020, 06:23:07 AM »
SARS was primarily treated with antibiotics. A vaccine didnít arrive until the end of the outbreak.

For those in the medical community wouldnít antibiotics generally have a quicker response? Vaccines typical take a week or so to build immunity and still might not be effective.