Author Topic: The day after tomorrow  (Read 17829 times)

samwise

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #30 on: March 21, 2020, 10:03:09 PM »
Thanks Jurgis. I wonít rely on those numbers. 🙂 they are quite bad, but hopefully temporary.

Here is another approach. This isnít an economic phenomenon which has to run its course, itís completely man made. So maybe we just need to measure the willingness to take this pain.

How much pain can the average American take? At what unemployment number over two months do Americans say enough, letís end this.


Spekulatius

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #31 on: March 22, 2020, 03:51:12 AM »
Thanks Jurgis. I wonít rely on those numbers. 🙂 they are quite bad, but hopefully temporary.

Here is another approach. This isnít an economic phenomenon which has to run its course, itís completely man made. So maybe we just need to measure the willingness to take this pain.

How much pain can the average American take? At what unemployment number over two months do Americans say enough, letís end this.

Economic problems are man made too. What allís these estimates donít take into account is cascading effects or reflexivity. If I had to  make a guess, the 20% lay-off number is closer to the truth than 10%. Who is going to buy a house, car, fund a startup or invest in new business opportunity in this pandemonium? Sure some will remain, but those somewhat decretionary things will be severely cut. The indirect cascading effects will at least as high than the direct effects. Thatís why it important to soften the blow to the economy.
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Cigarbutt

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #32 on: March 22, 2020, 05:50:35 AM »
Thanks Jurgis. I wonít rely on those numbers. 🙂 they are quite bad, but hopefully temporary.

Here is another approach. This isnít an economic phenomenon which has to run its course, itís completely man made. So maybe we just need to measure the willingness to take this pain.

How much pain can the average American take? At what unemployment number over two months do Americans say enough, letís end this.

Economic problems are man made too. What allís these estimates donít take into account is cascading effects or reflexivity. If I had to  make a guess, the 20% lay-off number is closer to the truth than 10%. Who is going to buy a house, car, fund a startup or invest in new business opportunity in this pandemonium? Sure some will remain, but those somewhat decretionary things will be severely cut. The indirect cascading effects will at least as high than the direct effects. Thatís why it important to soften the blow to the economy.
Maybe this is irrelevant but I get this feeling that a lot of what the government has done in the last 20 years or so has been to soften the blow.
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-03/56165-CBO-debt-primer.pdf
I realize CBO documents are not exactly like a Netflix series but looking at page 6, graph S-1 requires about 5 seconds.
A word about the CBO:
-They are typically wrong in their forecasts (sometimes wildly so) and they typically underestimate shortfalls.
-Their outlook does not usually factor in recessions
-Their recent outlook report (March 2020) does not take into account recent health-related issues

SharperDingaan

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #33 on: March 22, 2020, 07:42:10 AM »
Most people are simply in denial. The unemployment numbers from this are so large, that folks just cannot imagine it.
There HAS to be a pill, or a vaccine that I can take - to escape this nightmare!

There are 45 auto-plants in the US. They, and their domestic supply chains, are now shut down. Every auto-plant supports roughly 7 other jobs in the economy. Of the 45 auto-plants, roughly half are owned by the Big-3, and employ about 150K employees. Hence, with this announcement - roughly 2.1 MILLION jobs, just hit the street (2x150Kx7=2.1M). Similar cascades around aircraft makers/airlines, oil/gas, travel, hospitality, and hotels - AND ALL IN THE SAME MONTH.

Manufacturers are converting to mask and ventilator production, because they desperately need the work.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/ford-gm-covid19-close-factories-1.5501927
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automotive_assembly_plants_in_the_United_States

That denial, is feeding US intolerance of social distancing for any length of time.
Public shaming, and police/military enforcement in a pressure cooker, is not going to go down well. Millions of angry people, with easy access to social media and internet, is not a happy combination - and they are going to blame somebody.

SD


 
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 07:53:03 AM by SharperDingaan »

Jurgis

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #34 on: March 22, 2020, 09:07:21 AM »
Most people are simply in denial. The unemployment numbers from this are so large, that folks just cannot imagine it.
There HAS to be a pill, or a vaccine that I can take - to escape this nightmare!

There are 45 auto-plants in the US. They, and their domestic supply chains, are now shut down. Every auto-plant supports roughly 7 other jobs in the economy. Of the 45 auto-plants, roughly half are owned by the Big-3, and employ about 150K employees. Hence, with this announcement - roughly 2.1 MILLION jobs, just hit the street (2x150Kx7=2.1M). Similar cascades around aircraft makers/airlines, oil/gas, travel, hospitality, and hotels - AND ALL IN THE SAME MONTH.

Manufacturers are converting to mask and ventilator production, because they desperately need the work.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/ford-gm-covid19-close-factories-1.5501927
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automotive_assembly_plants_in_the_United_States

That denial, is feeding US intolerance of social distancing for any length of time.
Public shaming, and police/military enforcement in a pressure cooker, is not going to go down well. Millions of angry people, with easy access to social media and internet, is not a happy combination - and they are going to blame somebody.

SD

SD,

I could not find info for all factories, but it seems that employees are being compensated during closure:
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/autos/2020/03/19/arlington-general-motors-plant-will-close-for-deep-cleaning-until-march-30-halting-production/
So, although it's a big economic impact to companies, it is not yet a big impact on jobs.
Clearly companies won't be able to keep paying employees if the factories are closed for extended period though.
It is also not clear if other companies in the supply chain pay their workers during closures too.
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SharperDingaan

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #35 on: March 22, 2020, 10:21:22 AM »
Most people are simply in denial. The unemployment numbers from this are so large, that folks just cannot imagine it.
There HAS to be a pill, or a vaccine that I can take - to escape this nightmare!

There are 45 auto-plants in the US. They, and their domestic supply chains, are now shut down. Every auto-plant supports roughly 7 other jobs in the economy. Of the 45 auto-plants, roughly half are owned by the Big-3, and employ about 150K employees. Hence, with this announcement - roughly 2.1 MILLION jobs, just hit the street (2x150Kx7=2.1M). Similar cascades around aircraft makers/airlines, oil/gas, travel, hospitality, and hotels - AND ALL IN THE SAME MONTH.

Manufacturers are converting to mask and ventilator production, because they desperately need the work.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/ford-gm-covid19-close-factories-1.5501927
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automotive_assembly_plants_in_the_United_States

That denial, is feeding US intolerance of social distancing for any length of time.
Public shaming, and police/military enforcement in a pressure cooker, is not going to go down well. Millions of angry people, with easy access to social media and internet, is not a happy combination - and they are going to blame somebody.

SD

SD,

I could not find info for all factories, but it seems that employees are being compensated during closure:
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/autos/2020/03/19/arlington-general-motors-plant-will-close-for-deep-cleaning-until-march-30-halting-production/
So, although it's a big economic impact to companies, it is not yet a big impact on jobs.
Clearly companies won't be able to keep paying employees if the factories are closed for extended period though.
It is also not clear if other companies in the supply chain pay their workers during closures too.

Employees in the auto-plants and supply chains, are being compensated for WEEKS, not months. Vacation pay at 100%, 2-3 weeks at 50% of pay or less, then unemployment insurance. For most, maybe 4-8 weeks until unemployment insurance. If it takes longer ......

Wait staff typically earn 1/2 their pay from the employer, and 1/2 from tips. Most canadian unemployment insurance will replace 50% of employment income, but for wait staff that is a 75% cut in pay, effective immediately. The hundreds of thousands of servers no longer serving you - and leaving the major cities to return home to mom/dad, because they can no longer afford to live there.

SD

 

Viking

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #36 on: March 22, 2020, 10:27:48 AM »
Most people are simply in denial. The unemployment numbers from this are so large, that folks just cannot imagine it.
There HAS to be a pill, or a vaccine that I can take - to escape this nightmare!

There are 45 auto-plants in the US. They, and their domestic supply chains, are now shut down. Every auto-plant supports roughly 7 other jobs in the economy. Of the 45 auto-plants, roughly half are owned by the Big-3, and employ about 150K employees. Hence, with this announcement - roughly 2.1 MILLION jobs, just hit the street (2x150Kx7=2.1M). Similar cascades around aircraft makers/airlines, oil/gas, travel, hospitality, and hotels - AND ALL IN THE SAME MONTH.

Manufacturers are converting to mask and ventilator production, because they desperately need the work.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/ford-gm-covid19-close-factories-1.5501927
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automotive_assembly_plants_in_the_United_States

That denial, is feeding US intolerance of social distancing for any length of time.
Public shaming, and police/military enforcement in a pressure cooker, is not going to go down well. Millions of angry people, with easy access to social media and internet, is not a happy combination - and they are going to blame somebody.

SD

Agreed. How do you model something you have never experienced before? That is happening on a scale that has never happened before? Where you are completely unprepared? With no global coordination? Where you have incomplete or no information? Where 1/3 of the population thinks concerns over the virus are being overblown?

Letís hope someone comes up with a treatment quickly. This virus thing is about to get real in the rest of Europe and North America in about another week.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 10:35:08 AM by Viking »

no_free_lunch

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #37 on: March 22, 2020, 10:28:14 AM »

The hundreds of thousands of servers no longer serving you - and leaving the major cities to return home to mom/dad, because they can no longer afford to live there.

SD

 

This is a good post.  It is not a theoretical, I have already seen it happen this past week.  Much of the population has no buffer at all, and the government's plans are completely inadequate for this situation.  Not a good time to be a landlord unless you can pass the pain on to the bank.

samwise

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #38 on: March 22, 2020, 11:25:25 AM »
FT posted some real time data points.

opentable shows restaurants bookings down 100% in uk, USA, Canada, Germany, Mexico, Ireland, but only down 50% in Australia.

Springboard (never heard of them before) shows retail footfalls have fallen 70% in USA and Italy on Mach 18, and 20% in uk, Sweden.

Cinema bookings shrank 2/3 in the March 15 weekend Y/Y. In most of  50 countries they track. Italy and China didnít report any data. Presumably because there was no data to report.

Us cinemas weekly take was less than half the take from a year ago.

Flightradar24 shows global flights down 20% in the week till March 21.

Tom Tom shows global rush hour traffic is down. London isnít down as much. Wuhan rush hour traffic hasnít recovered yet.

North Italy electricity consumption is down 15% March vs February, same day of the week. Maybe seasonal effects too.

Ft didnít say anything about unemployment. Google trends search on unemployment is back to 2009 levels, but previous research shows limited prediction power in this data. https://ideas.repec.org/p/rif/wpaper/35.html

Btw Italyís lockdown is quite severe. They just banned outside excercise (running,cycling). Staying inside is the healthier option. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-20/jogging-park-walks-banned-as-alarmed-italian-regions-impose-more-coronavirus-restrictions




bergman104

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #39 on: March 22, 2020, 11:28:06 AM »
The anti-inflammatory drugs like chloroquine have only shown to be beneficial in a petri dish, not in large groups of people. No physician I know would actually prescribe chloroquine to their patient unless it was a hail mary.

Montefiore Medical Center in New York has already started seeing the surge of Covid-19 patients that public health experts have been warning about. The hospital is participating in the remdesivir trial and is giving Covid-19 patients chloroquine. ďAll of our patients get put on chloroquine, as well as on antiretrovirals. Weíre using Kaletra. Different places are using different antiretrovirals,Ē says Liise-anne Pirofski, chief of infectious diseases at Albert Einstein College of Medicine and Montefiore. ďEverybody gets that, unless they have some contraindication.Ē

I stand corrected. Apparently it is being prescribed everywhere now. I hope it makes a significant difference.

https://www.wired.com/story/an-old-malaria-drug-may-fight-covid-19-and-silicon-valleys-into-it/