I did not go in depth through your calculations and assumptions yet.

With simple DCF model

~~stolen~~ borrowed from Brooklyn Investor, plugging in ~130 earnings, 10 years DCF, 5% growth, terminal 15 P/E, results in 10% return from 2200, 8% return from 2500, and 5% from current levels (~3180). I think that matches your numbers approximately.

(Yeah, I know adjust for Covid and all that.)

Thanks for posting.