Author Topic: Will S&P 500 Retest Recent Low By End of April  (Read 40855 times)

LC

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Re: Will S&P 500 Retest Recent Low By End of April
« Reply #20 on: April 05, 2020, 07:39:28 PM »
I also voted yes LC (low conviction) but I think the drop and recovery will be faster than 5 years or so.

Compared to the GFC - the economy needed structural changes: First in the mortgage business; but second (and more far reaching) in areas of counterparty risk, capital requirements, and so on.

Let's say by the time human society turns the corner on COVID the S&P is down at 1600. What structural changes are really needed? Perhaps we may build more strategic facilities for PPE to ramp-up in another emergency, but otherwise I do not really think there will be much fundamental changes to society and in particular the economy.

I just don't see this being a 5 year issue, but I could be wrong (and am playing the game conservatively in case I am).
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Kaegi2011

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Re: Will S&P 500 Retest Recent Low By End of April
« Reply #21 on: April 05, 2020, 08:30:48 PM »
I have a decent number of friends in the HF/PE side and the consensus seems to be that it'll be worse before it gets better.  Personally I don't see how we don't have a rolling containment strategy for the rest of the year, absent a miracle vaccine or warmer weather really impacting the disease. 

Having said that, noting how one way the sentiment seems to be among the people here along with my group of friends, is short/medium term risk more about the rally continuing rather than more downside to come? 

I know this is an investment forum largely geared to value and long term holders, and opinion above is perhaps too short termed for some, so I would just like to point out tha tthe topic was for where the S&P was headed by the end of the month.  :)

wescobrk

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Re: Will S&P 500 Retest Recent Low By End of April
« Reply #22 on: April 05, 2020, 09:30:08 PM »
It won't be tomorrow.
Dow Futures up over 700 points.

kab60

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Re: Will S&P 500 Retest Recent Low By End of April
« Reply #23 on: April 05, 2020, 09:53:03 PM »
The sentiment on this forum seems almost like a contrarian indicator - but perhaps that's not isolated to this forum. While the indexes might still be expensive, a lot of Companies are priced as if they're going bankrupt despite the fact that they'll get through this - and the good companies will probably emerge even stronger as they usually do through a crisis. It's as if people take recent events and extrapolate them far into the future. I suppose that is what most forecasters do and why most are wrong as well.

Gregmal

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Re: Will S&P 500 Retest Recent Low By End of April
« Reply #24 on: April 05, 2020, 10:12:21 PM »
I stopped by QuickCheck to pick up a pack of Marlboros before some night fishing. The guy at the register, a friend/acquistaince/I see him 6 nights a week during fishing season, told me, dont worry, in 2-3 weeks the market will bottom. So either its already bottomed(aka Ackman and Tepper read this right) or we've got a long way to go(everyone here is warranted in their gloominess). We will see I suppose.

Viking

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Re: Will S&P 500 Retest Recent Low By End of April
« Reply #25 on: April 05, 2020, 11:43:25 PM »
Here is your bear call for the day. I agree with Minerd’s basic thesis that the economic data will get much worse and this is not reflected in current stock prices. His worst case scenario is grim (S&P 500 falling to 500). So a fall back to 2,191 looks minor in comparison :-)

Wall Street star money manager says S&P 500 could plunge to 1,500 in worst case, with coronavirus fallout lingering for years
- https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-star-money-manager-says-sp-500-could-plunge-to-1500-in-worst-case-with-coronavirus-fallout-lingering-for-years-2020-04-05

Minerd explained it this way:

BUT ONE THING I WOULD CAUTION IS THAT IF EARNINGS CONTINUE TO FALL AS I EXPECT THEM TO, S&P EARNINGS COULD GET AS LOW AS $100 THIS YEAR. GIVEN THE TRADITIONAL MARKET MULTIPLE OF ABOUT 15 TIMES EARNINGS, THAT WOULD PUT THE S&P AT ABOUT 1,500, STILL ABOUT A THOUSAND POINTS LOWER THAN WE ARE TODAY. CERTAINLY, WE ARE DOWN FROM THE RECENT PEAK OF 3,386, SO WE’VE MADE A BIG MOVE, BUT WE STILL HAVE A PRETTY GOOD MOVE TO MAKE. INVESTORS SHOULD PROBABLY FOCUS THEIR ACTIVITY ON BONDS AT THIS POINT.

Minerd said his outlook has darkened considerably further on the economy because the data has been worse than he had estimated.

meiroy

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Re: Will S&P 500 Retest Recent Low By End of April
« Reply #26 on: April 06, 2020, 01:39:36 AM »

The problem with just looking at the fundamentals is assuming that the market is normal these days. It's not. The Fed has opened the flood gates. Free liquidity to all. It's like the people are starving and the Queen is distributing free cakes and champagne to all the people. Or something like that. Or maybe it's reflexivity. Because, what are you going to invest in if you see the markets going up, RE? What are the other options? 


Uccmal

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Re: Will S&P 500 Retest Recent Low By End of April
« Reply #27 on: April 06, 2020, 05:59:28 AM »
It won't be tomorrow.
Dow Futures up over 700 points.

I quite frankly have no idea what to make of this for the immediate future.  Could be a dead cat bounce.  I have always been over 100% invested, for 24 years.  I will ride the elevator up or down, but I much prefer up. 

My living expenses are 2/3 covered by dividends, most are unlikely to be cut.  For the other 1/3; I have years worth of credit lines I can tap, and deflation is causing expenses to go down.  So far I have saved about $4500 from cancelled travel, not eating out, and lessons of various sorts.  If summer camps for the kids, and summer travel is cancelled we are looking at another several thousand.  Renovation jobs are on hold.  We were planning to spend 30,000 or so on some "needed" outdoor work, but there is a moratorium on new construction work.  And my own home reno will go on hold in a week or two when I can no longer get in the store to "see" the parts I need.  Curbside has limited utility for me. 

Multiply my reduced expenditures out throughout the population and you get a major recession followed, or concurrent to a market rout.  The travel, camp, and lessons costs are gone forever.  I wont be travelling anywhere but Canada until at least Christmas (My insurance wont cover it until this is over).  The reno costs are kicked down the road for me, but for people on reduced or no pay there are now years out. 

Further out from me, people are unable to get new credit cards, mortgage rates are up, house sales are gone.  And people don't think this is going to affect stock markets?  Most people live paycheck to paycheck, and are unprepared for any interruption.  The government stimulus is just a bandage. 



GARP tending toward value

Gregmal

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Re: Will S&P 500 Retest Recent Low By End of April
« Reply #28 on: April 06, 2020, 10:18:57 AM »
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-worst-is-behind-us-with-the-most-attractive-risk-reward-in-years-it-is-time-to-buy-stocks-morgan-stanley-says-2020-04-06?mod=mw_latestnews

Thats one take. Then you go to the Bargain Meter on VIC and still 43% of people see "very few" ideas lol. If you cant find anything to buy right now, you have no business investing your own money... A lot of things are cheap, but theres also a lot to be cautious about.

rb

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Re: Will S&P 500 Retest Recent Low By End of April
« Reply #29 on: April 06, 2020, 10:26:49 AM »
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-worst-is-behind-us-with-the-most-attractive-risk-reward-in-years-it-is-time-to-buy-stocks-morgan-stanley-says-2020-04-06?mod=mw_latestnews

Thats one take. Then you go to the Bargain Meter on VIC and still 43% of people see "very few" ideas lol. If you cant find anything to buy right now, you have no business investing your own money... A lot of things are cheap, but theres also a lot to be cautious about.
Really The S&P is about 10% above what it was in Dec 2008 with a global pandemic going on. More people not working than at any time that any of us can remember.  Nobody really sure of how it all shakes out. But this is most attractive opportunity to buy stocks in years? How many years exactly is that?